Period

3. possible period of the critical phase of the pandemic for airlines

In this part of our project "Ideas for international airlines during and beyond the crisis". addresses the question "What is the possible duration of the critical phase of the pandemic for airlines?".

The critical phase extends over a longer period of up to two years, as the industry is international. Many regions will not be served for several months - if not years.

A general rethink has already begun with regard to business travel. Many 'traditional' business trips will no longer be made in the future after the pandemic, as experience has shown that video calls and online meetings can largely replace unnecessary business trips - and increase productivity.

The impact of holidays not taken will also be negative, as it is difficult to make up for holidays. And if it were, the reduced capacities would not allow it.

Those responsible must evaluate mechanisms for detecting and developing new ideas via the phases described below - and adapt the resulting innovations and strategies in a targeted manner. These enable the partial compensation of previous failures and the development of new business areas and applications. We describe detailed ideas on this in a subsequent article:

The possible optimum for airlines beyond the crisis - especially with regard to new business areas'.

According to current estimates, the critical phase for the aviation industry may last until October 2020, before easing again in the course of the following one to two years - although not necessarily to the previous level.

The individual phases in detail - dynamics

It seems that things can only start to look up again in aviation once innovative solutions - including those we have described - have been adapted.

These solutions point to the further steps which, taken together, offer a perspective for the further development of aviation in line with the changing spirit of the times.

Before that, it is important for those responsible and decision-makers to be open to new ways and solutions.

Basically, we are dealing with the same time dynamics in aviation as they are in the Taxi- and Education aspect.

The specific time and turnover curve

Zeit-und-Umsatzkurve
Time and revenue curve of further development in aviation and airlines.

1. the development to date

This phase describes the development so far in the crisis up to the current situation.

2. the current situation

This point concerns the current situation as we have already described it in detail:

THE CURRENT SITUATION OF AIRLINES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CORONA PANDEMIC

In this phase, there is a certain perplexity with regard to a necessary solution, how exactly one can continue in a plannable manner. No airline was prepared for such a situation in one of the internal scenarios - even if in principle it could have been or even should have been.

2.1 One is open to a solution or any kind of idea that can be implemented.

This is the point at which new solutions and innovations (must) come into play. For those responsible or decision-makers, it is important to include these in their further planning and scenarios.

3. start of adaptation

From this point on, the adaptation and integration of initial ideas and solutions resulting from the preceding phase begin. Implementation takes place in a regular iteration or sequence - also permanently across all subsequent phases.

3.1 First flights & special flights

From this point on, the first flights and special flights are feasible, which will be carried out under special conditions. These will be carried out in accordance with the measures currently known and possible: maximum possible seat spacing, regular disinfection, etc.. In addition, there are the immediate measures we have already described:

FURTHER POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE MEASURES BY AIRLINES FOR REGULAR FLIGHT OPERATIONS OUT OF THE CRISIS

Their integration also forms the basis for the further relaxation described in phase 3.5.

This relaxation of pandemic travel restrictions will take effect around mid-June / early July.

The first regular flights may still be handled in an irregular manner until all parties involved (aviation personnel, airport staff, the associated infrastructure, etc.) have adjusted to the new conditions of carriage.

There are still many cancellations, delays and inconveniences for passengers in the first months.

3.2: Implementation stages

This is followed by the step-by-step adaptation of innovative and necessary solutions (including those listed here) in various implementation stages, after their implementation has been validated and evaluated in advance.

3.3 Traditional measures

At the same time, more and more classic measures are being adapted, such as those already implemented initially by the airlines (see above) - and in other industries and areas of society.

For this purpose, airlines should conduct permanent research that looks for suitable solutions, picks them up and then checks their applicability. If something is found to be feasible, then the process of adaptation and gradual implementation takes place. This is then successively extended to the entire fleet.

We assume that this is the earliest possible point in time at which airlines are willing to share their findings with other airlines in order to understandably benefit themselves.

3.4 Further solutions

At that time, other innovative solutions that have been developed in the meantime could be ready for implementation.

The plans and concepts developed up to this point are now also shared with a broad public - and make the future image of aviation understandable and comprehensible. Among other things, they are based on the fundamentals we have outlined, such as a new technical understanding, a new way of thinking about mobility (> "Futuristic Ambience and Travel Flair" will be published shortly) and a civic participation - possibly even a solidarity community (> "Public Innovation" coming soon).

During this phase, the industry will also have to begin to move away from outdated technologies.

3.5 Political clearances

At this point, further political release mechanisms are decided, the implementation of which will be the basis for subsequent increased flight operations.

This step requires the adaptation of further, necessary solutions - as also developed and described by us.

This phase could be initiated - or occur - in August and September.

3.6 Further increase

This phase defines a further increase in aircraft movements in September and October, which continues beyond.

Only towards (the end of) October can one speak of a more or less regular, but still far from 'normal' flight operation. Especially not a worldwide flight operation, as the travel restrictions will be eased country-specifically.

It must be constantly re-planned, adjusted and improved (flight plans, routes, overflight rights of airspaces). A final easing of the situation and a return to the 'new normal' is not expected until winter 2021 at the earliest.

It is unclear whether from this point onwards the achievement of the previous market volume will be initiated again - or whether this will already be the case. At present, it is questionable whether the former market volume will ever be reached again in the old form.

Based on our assessment, this will take years if, possibly up to 5 years. However, it will take at least one to two years for the aviation industry to even get back into that range.

Phase 4

This phase is no longer about managing the pandemic. This is about implementing a possible 'optimum for airlines'. The first innovations, technical and structural changes are implemented in air traffic. A new age of aviation is being ushered in.

Phase 5

From this phase onwards, classical aviation diversified considerably and a multitude of new possibilities for transporting people and goods were gradually developed. These are developed and adapted in a wide variety of ways precisely to the respective applications and goals.

We describe detailed ideas about Phase 4 and 5 in a subsequent post:

The possible optimum for airlines beyond the crisis - especially with regard to new business areas'.

 

In the next part of our project "Ideas for international airlines during and beyond the crisis". is about the question "The possible optimum for airlines beyond the crisis - especially with regard to new business areas".

5. possible period of the critical phase of the pandemic for German schools and educational institutions

In this part of our project "Optimal digital learning during and beyond the crisis". is concerned with the question "How long the possible period of the critical phase of the pandemic will last for schools and educational institutions in Germany".

 

A long-lasting phase

The period as a whole is a rather long-lasting phase that people have adjusted to within their means. However, the impact will be of a longer duration as we as a society have only got through the initial phase and we are not returning to full normality any time soon. Even if an absolutely reduced school operation has already begun (as of mid / end April 2020).

In essence, it could be a total of 3 - 4 difficult months. Therefore, the implementation of the new ideas outlined here is necessary as soon as possible.

Over time, all those involved adjust to the situation as best they can. Therefore, it is important for the school and education sector to establish the necessary routines in the context of digital learning and to develop them in the long term - as shown here.

An initial improvement occurs when the majority of all current restrictions are lifted.

 

Peak only in May

The effects could continue to be felt until the end of the year, although the peak could be passed by the end of May: The epidemic may even peak in May before leveling off relatively quickly.

 

Improvement from the end of June

From the end of June, there would then be a significant improvement in the general situation (with regard to the pandemic). The more intensive effects could still be felt into the summer - August / September.

In other words, it could take longer than planned because the peak has not yet passed. It is possible that the schools will remain closed for regular operations until after the summer holidays.

 

Fade out

After that, the curve slowly flattens out and regular operation returns in greater numbers. In combination with the parallel required digital learning, a total period of 8 - 9 months can be achieved, with further opportunities for digital learning through the new ideas, innovations and possibilities.

 

Wavelike progression

We may be dealing with a wave-like progression. The effects can be significantly reduced by the measures we have described. It is possible that we will have another wave of infections in the autumn.

 

School attendance in exceptional cases

In cases of existential threat, it should be possible for parents to return their children to school with a declaration of consent from the end of April / beginning of May. The prerequisite should be that the children do not belong to the risk group and also do not have family members from risk groups in their direct environment.

Another reason should be to avert psychological damage to children when this threatens to become too great. In most cases, the damage is probably caused by a perceived lack of contact, multiplied by a disturbed closeness-distance relationship between child and parents.

 

Normality?

The time until normality prevails will in many cases be several weeks beyond the gradual reopening of the schools. This is individual for each school, which is due to the fact that schools or teachers provide their students with different content. Digital assignment sheets, for example, can be checked, discussed and improved in a timely manner. At schools where the supply is analogue or via the mere sending of non-editable (scanned) PDFs, performance monitoring is downstream.

Unless results can be sent in continuously, it will not even be possible to check them until the schools reopen. These teachers will thus be busy for a long time dealing with old topics - if they do this at all. Unfortunately, these topics have no real value at that point, since the topics were already dealt with several weeks ago. This problem is especially true for elementary schools.

 

The epidemic is possibly the impetus for a complete renewal of the existing (worldwide) school system.

The trigger for this is probably that parents are more concerned with the teaching content of their children during this time. In addition, parents' demands increase as the crisis continues. The same applies to parents' understanding of what their children are - or are not - learning in schools.

As a possible scenario, the previous school system will only have a transitional justification in the long run, mainly to take care of the students. The development goes towards a free, dynamic and digitally flanked learning system.

This renewal of the school system is a longer process that will take at least the next 5 years.

There is unlikely to be a critical phase after the epidemic subsides, as the school system is basically in the process of reinventing itself - or rather, conquering the digital space and free learning through experiences now made.

The transition from the classical to the new school system will probably take place in several waves so as not to overburden the pupils and institutions.

 

Universities

In the future, universities will focus more on practical applications, experiments and research. In the future, the previous content (lectures) will increasingly be taught via suitable teaching platforms.

 

Educational institutions

In educational institutions, how and when they resume operations must be decided on a case-by-case basis, as some educational institutions are confronted with at-risk groups and some rarely if ever.

 

In the next part of our project "Optimal digital learning during and beyond the crisis". is concerned with the question "What role or function can learning and publication platforms assume in the context of this project".

5. period of the critical phase of the epidemic for the taxi industry in Germany

A long-lasting phase

The period seems like a rather long-lasting phase to adjust to. The effects will be of longer duration, as we are still at the beginning and we will not return to normality so quickly. Even if the impact on the taxi industry may not be as great as currently assumed.

In essence, it could be a total of 3 - 4 difficult months. Therefore, the implementation of the new ideas outlined here is necessary as soon as possible.

Over time, everyone adjusts to the situation. Therefore, it is important for the industry to establish the necessary routines within the framework of the new solutions and to offer an overall broader spectrum - as shown here in the core.

An initial improvement occurs when the following restrictions on passenger transport are lifted:

  • Concert cancellations
  • No Bundesliga in all sports
  • No tourists
  • No business travelers
  • No trips to the restaurant
  • and the like ...

 

Peak only in May

The effects could continue to be felt until the end of the year, although the peak could be passed by the end of May: The epidemic may even peak in May before leveling off relatively quickly.

Improvement from the end of June

From the end of June, there would then be a significant improvement in the general situation (with regard to the epidemic). The more intense effects could still be felt into the summer - August / September.

Fade out

After that, the curve slowly flattens out and the old business comes back in greater numbers. In combination with the possible new business, a volume can be achieved over a period of perhaps 8 - 9 months that corresponds to the previous one, with further growth opportunities through the new ideas, innovations and possibilities.

Wavelike progression

We may be dealing with a wave-like progression. The effects can be significantly reduced via the measures. It is possible that we will have another wave of infections in the autumn.

 

 

Synopsis

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